Britain could be sourcing around 60% of its gas from US liquefied natural gas imports by 2035, up from roughly 10% in 2024, according to new analysis from energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The projection reflects the continuing decline of North Sea output — now at its lowest level since the early 1970s — and raises questions about the strategic risks of becoming heavily reliant on a single overseas supplier.
In 2024, the UK drew its gas supply roughly equally from its domestic North Sea fields and Norwegian pipeline imports, with LNG making up the remainder, the majority of which came from the United States. Wood Mackenzie’s modelling suggests that balance shifts dramatically over the next decade as domestic production continues to fall faster than demand.
The consultancy argues that increasing domestic oil and gas output would reduce the UK’s exposure to international market shocks and help manage supply resilience. Gail Anderson, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, called for a broad energy policy that combines renewables with continued use of domestic hydrocarbons and emerging technologies including carbon capture and hydrogen. She described reducing dependence on LNG imports as a priority, particularly given the degree to which energy supplies are now shaped by geopolitical instability.
Wood Mackenzie also notes that gas extracted from the UK continental shelf carries a lower carbon footprint than LNG shipped across the Atlantic and can be supplied at lower cost in the near term — factors that add economic and environmental weight to the argument for maintaining domestic production.
The government’s position remains that expanding fossil fuel extraction is not the appropriate response to energy security or price concerns, with officials pointing instead to the acceleration of renewable energy development and the goal of reducing long-term dependence on volatile global markets.
The tension between these positions is likely to intensify. Most analysts accept that increased North Sea output would have limited direct effect on consumer energy prices, which are broadly set by global markets. Supporters of expanded domestic production argue, however, that even modest supply increases improve resilience and reduce vulnerability when international disruptions — such as those seen recently in the Middle East — tighten shipping routes and push energy costs higher. How the government navigates that trade-off will shape UK energy policy through the rest of the decade.