The national average price for regular unleaded gas reached 4.08 dollars a gallon Thursday, a nearly 40 percent climb from the 2.93 dollar average before the U.S.-Israel bombing campaign on Iran began in late February.
AAA’s daily tracking shows the sustained pressure stemming from the Strait of Hormuz closure, which blocks roughly a fifth of global crude supply from flowing to market. Even though the U.S. produces most of its own oil, crude trades globally and disruptions anywhere lift prices everywhere.
When might relief come?
President Trump said the U.S. would finish its military objectives soon but also suggested operations could continue another two to three weeks. He promised gas prices would drop quickly once the Strait reopens.
Economists push back on that timeline. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimates weeks or months for the strait to clear and markets to rebalance. “Gas prices go up like a rocket and fall like a feather,” he noted.
Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy said things could deteriorate further before improving. The Russia-Ukraine spike in 2022 reversed within months, but the current disruption hits a more fragile supply architecture.
The new baseline
Most forecasters say pre-war prices are not coming back. Iran proved it can shut down the strait, and that geopolitical risk now gets baked into contract pricing. Insurers add war-risk premiums to tanker routes, raising shipping costs permanently.
Lipow Oil president Andrew Lipow called it “the cat out of the bag.” Zandi agreed: “There is no going back to 3 dollars for a gallon of regular unleaded for the foreseeable future.”
Diesel and jet fuel face separate supply dynamics and will keep commercial freight and air travel expensive for months. Summer travel is expected to take a noticeable hit as fuel becomes the dominant cost driver for airlines.