Airlines could be forced to cancel flights throughout the summer if the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz persists, according to Ryanair’s chief executive Michael O’Leary, who warns fuel shortages are becoming a genuine threat.
The prolonged closure of the Strait means roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply remains restricted, along with significant refining capacity needed to produce jet fuel. In an interview with ITV News, O’Leary cautioned that 5% to 10% of flights across May, June, and July might need to be canceled if the disruption continues for two to three more months.
Carriers won’t have the luxury of picking which routes survive, he explained. Cancellations will depend entirely on what fuel is available at each airport when the shortage hits. The situation could affect thousands of passengers.
Despite the uncertainty, O’Leary is urging holidaymakers to book now rather than wait. Jet fuel prices at major U.S. hubs including Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York have already reached $4.88 per gallon — nearly double pre-conflict levels. Further delays will only push fares higher, he argues.
United Airlines is preparing for oil to hit as high as $175 a barrel and is already planning capacity reductions. More carriers are adding fees for checked bags to offset energy costs.
Passengers whose flights get canceled won’t qualify for refunds, since airlines can cite extraordinary circumstances. However, those flying within Europe have protection — airlines are legally required to reroute them or arrange alternative transport home.
While acknowledging the risk, O’Leary insists most travelers will make it to their destinations. Ninety to ninety-five percent of flights should still operate this year. The real gamble, he suggests, is waiting too long to book and facing substantially higher prices.