Wales is at risk of becoming increasingly dependent on imported gas and electricity from England as renewable energy growth stalls, according to analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
The not-for-profit research group found that Wales has lost its status as a net electricity exporter. From a peak of over 21 TWh in 2016, net exports fell to near zero by 2024, with Wales becoming a net importer from England for the first time last year.
Electricity generation has dropped nearly 50% from its 2016 peak as renewable capacity growth has not kept pace with the decline of coal and nuclear output. Gas now accounts for 58% of Welsh generation—the highest share of any UK nation—leaving the region heavily exposed to volatile international fossil fuel markets.
The Welsh Government has set a target of meeting 100% of electricity demand from renewables by 2035. Renewable generation has grown nearly eightfold since 2024 and now meets around a third of Welsh demand, but growth has stalled since 2019. Experts warn that Wales’s planning pipeline, while still substantial, is smaller and less developed than in England and Scotland.
With electricity demand forecast to double by 2050, ECIU projections show renewables’ share of generation could actually fall in the near term if deployment does not accelerate. Gas already dictates UK domestic electricity prices roughly 85% of the time, leaving consumers vulnerable to global price shocks. The IMF has warned the UK faces particular exposure from the Iran conflict given its dependence on gas-powered generation.
Cornwall Insight estimates the average household energy bill could rise by nearly £300 when the price cap is revised in July, as Middle East conflict sends gas prices to a three-year high.
Laura Dunn, senior associate at the ECIU, said accelerating renewable deployment is essential to shielding consumers from international market volatility. “In an increasingly uncertain world, the best way to offer Welsh households and industry the long-term certainty they need is by untethering the cost of electricity from unstable international gas markets,” she said.
Polling by More in Common for the ECIU found 70% of Welsh voters are concerned about energy dependence on the United States, and 67% about reliance on imports from the rest of the world. The US now supplies 68% of UK liquefied natural gas imports.