With polls suggesting no party will secure an overall majority in the Senedd, Wales faces a fundamental question: can politicians move beyond disagreement to actually solve problems?
Since devolution began 27 years ago, Welsh politics has been defined by Labour’s dominance, even when that dominance required agreements with other parties. Some argue this produced stability, but waiting lists have grown, the economy has lagged, housing pressure has intensified, and the same debates about productivity, poverty, and public services continue year after year.
When examining all six party manifestos, a surprising pattern emerges: the parties are far closer than their campaign rhetoric suggests. Health stands out as the most obvious area for agreement. Every party, from Labour to Reform, acknowledges the NHS in Wales faces severe strain and public confidence has been badly damaged.
Labour wants new hospitals and shorter waiting times. Plaid Cymru promises surgical hubs and stronger links between health and care. The Liberal Democrats focus on expanding care capacity to relieve hospital pressure. The Conservatives would declare a health emergency. Reform and the Greens both demand urgent intervention.
Profound differences exist over NHS funding and reform, but enough overlap exists for an administration to build a pragmatic program cutting waiting lists, expanding planned care, and addressing corridor care. In a hung Senedd, health will test whether politicians accept compromise as strength, not weakness.
Childcare represents one of the few policy areas with existing agreement, though approaches differ. Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats want universal childcare from nine months. The Greens back universal coverage from nine months. The Conservatives support extending free childcare from nine months to four years. Labour has made childcare expansion a central promise.
Childcare increasingly functions as economic infrastructure, helping parents return to work and supporting family incomes. If no party gains control, childcare expansion looks like the easiest area for cross-party agreement.
The economy offers similar, if more limited, opportunity. No party claims Wales performs as it should. Labour wants a new industrial strategy. Plaid and the Conservatives propose a National Development Agency. The Liberal Democrats discuss changing business rates. Even Reform frames its platform around backing business, rewarding work, and cutting waste.
This doesn’t amount to shared economic philosophy, but room exists for agreement on business rate reform, apprenticeship support, and simplifying business support. These aren’t glamorous policies, but they’re the kind a minority government could pass in four years.
Housing shows more political division, yet points of agreement exist. Labour, Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens all argue Wales needs more affordable and social housing, stronger action on homelessness, and a bigger state role in fixing a failing market. The Welsh Conservatives focus more on planning reform, while Reform places less emphasis on expanding social housing.
Environment divides on Net Zero, especially with Reform, but river pollution and water quality show broader consensus than expected. Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the Conservatives, and Reform all promise tougher action on polluted rivers and sewage discharges.
Tax presents the hardest path to consensus. Labour will not raise Welsh income tax. The Conservatives and Reform want tax cuts. The Liberal Democrats leave the door open to temporary rises for social care. Plaid wants broader tax powers and a more progressive framework. The Greens want wider tax reform.
A Senedd without majority need not mean paralysis. A grand coalition around shared vision is unlikely—ideological divides run too deep. But it may produce more negotiated politics where parties agree on specific measures in areas where the public demands action.
After nearly three decades of one party’s dominance shaping Welsh politics, such a shift would be significant. The frustration in Wales isn’t simply that politicians disagree—it’s that the same problems persist from two decades ago.
If no party has a majority, the next government will be judged not by the elegance of its agreements but by its ability to make the Welsh state work better. The real test may not be who wins election night, but whether the next Senedd can make difficult compromises leading to shorter waits, better services, and a stronger economy.