A slowing labor market is making it tougher for recent graduates to launch their careers—but some Southern cities are bucking the trend.
An ADP study analyzed the 53 largest U.S. metro areas, evaluating hiring rates, wages, and affordability for workers in their 20s holding college degrees. The results placed Birmingham, Alabama, and Tampa, Florida, at the top of the list for new graduates entering the workforce. Birmingham scored in the 85th percentile or higher across all three metrics, while Tampa dominated in hiring rankings despite weaker showings on wages and cost of living.
Rounding out the top five were San Jose, California, and Columbus, Ohio. Four more Southern metros made the top 10: Raleigh, North Carolina; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Nashville, Tennessee; and Charlotte, North Carolina. San Francisco and New York City took the seventh and tenth spots, respectively.
According to Wall Street Journal coverage of the ADP data, the findings suggest a hiring recovery for college graduates is taking shape unevenly across the country.
Both Columbus and San Jose posted surprising gains despite mixed component scores—San Jose ranked in just the 12th percentile for affordability, while Columbus sat at the 50th percentile for earnings.
Meanwhile, some metros that dominated a year ago have slipped. Austin, Texas fell from the 94th percentile to the 77th, while Baltimore, Maryland dropped from 96th to 75th. Both cities ranked in the top five as recently as last year.
Not all markets moved backward, though. Tampa climbed from the 54th to the 98th percentile, San Jose rose from 76th to 96th, and Tulsa jumped from 50th to 90th. Fresno, California made one of the biggest leaps overall, moving from the 22nd percentile to the 79th.
The data suggests geography increasingly matters for new graduates weighing job prospects. Cities offering strong hiring activity and reasonable costs of living are pulling ahead, while expensive tech hubs face growing pressure on affordability.