China’s crackdown on top military leaders may be weakening the country’s ability to fight a large-scale war, but it could also make conflict more likely if mistakes or misjudgments spiral out of control, author Gordon Chang warned Monday.
The China expert and author of “Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America” discussed how turmoil within the top military leadership is raising concerns about Beijing’s ability to control crises rather than carry out a planned invasion.
Chinese President Xi Jinping walking in front of his military in China. (Li Gang / Getty Images)
Chang said China’s senior military leadership has been effectively “annihilated” by internal purges, calling into question whether Beijing could currently carry out a complex, coordinated air, land and sea operation.
He argued that the situation undercuts predictions that China is operating on a fixed timetable for war, including expectations that Beijing could move on Taiwan within the next few years.
“I don’t know how you can launch a combined air, land, sea operation in such a state,” Chang said.
Despite the apparent weakening of China’s military command structure, Chang warned that the overall risk of conflict remains high. He said Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping now has a greater incentive to keep tensions elevated, increasing the danger of miscalculation during military or diplomatic confrontations.
“But this doesn’t mean that we are free from war and threat of war, because Xi Jinping has a lot of incentive, more incentive now to keep tensions high,” Chang said.
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Chang cautioned that instability inside China’s political system could make it harder for Beijing to de-escalate a crisis once it begins, raising the risk that a single incident could spiral out of control.
“And if he miscalculated and one of these incidents goes wrong, he can’t de-escalate. So I still think the risk of war is high,” Chang said.