Buyers and sellers nationwide have been waiting for lower borrowing rates before making a move to re-enter the housing market. But timing this right is impossible, according to an industry expert.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the second consecutive time, lowering the federal funds rate by a quarter-point. This could be the last cut before the end of the year as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that another rate cut in December isn’t guaranteed.
The meeting has raised questions about whether buyers should lock in a mortgage now or wait until the end of the year.
A row of homes along Valley Avenue Southeast in the Washington Highlands neighborhood of Washington, D.C. (Tristen Rouse for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
For nearly two years, mortgage rates have hovered near their highest levels in more than two decades, creating a significant barrier to entry into the U.S. housing market, slowing demand and making the American dream of owning a home seem out of reach for many.
While rates aren’t directly tied to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate, they are influenced by it. Mortgage rates closely track the 10-year Treasury yield, which is currently hovering just shy of 4.1%.
But Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economic research, noted that the interest rate change was already reflected in borrowing costs before the Fed’s announcement.
“Mortgage rates move when economic data changes the odds of an upcoming cut or when the Fed issues communications to prepare markets for what they’re going to do at an upcoming meeting,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economic research. “The takeaway is that it’s impossible for households to anticipate the best time to get a mortgage.”
Feb. 14, 2023 shows a house for sale in Washington, D.C., the United States. (Aaron Schwartz/Xinhua / Getty Images)
If homeowners are looking to buy, they should find a home that works for their personal circumstances, he said. Afterward, they should stay in contact with their lenders because if rates fall by half a percentage point or more, they should refinance right away to the lower rate, Zhao added.
Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel said the 10-year Treasury yield has already climbed about 10 basis points since the Fed’s decision, suggesting that mortgage rates may not move much in the coming weeks.
“With the Fed navigating in the ‘fog’ of a data vacuum and an FOMC clearly divided and uncertain, policy could easily pause here,” he said.
A house for sale in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, D.C. (Photographer: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.17% from the prior week’s reading of 6.19%.
Krimmel argued that preparation is much more important than timing, and that borrowers will likely get more mileage by shopping around across lenders.
Realtor.com research showed that buyers can save as much as 55 basis points if they shop around, which Krimmel said is “worth so much more than any near-term change in the market rate.”