Farmers across the Great Plains face an intensifying drought that threatens winter wheat harvests and is pushing cattle producers toward costly feed purchases, forcing some to abandon herd expansion plans.
Weeks of scant rainfall and a late-winter heat spell that fueled massive pasture fires have left the region parched. Drought now covers nearly 90% of Nebraska and Oklahoma, with more than half of Nebraska in extreme drought. Such conditions have historically driven cattle producers to sell animals and forced farmers to drill new irrigation wells as rivers run dry.
The coming weeks prove critical for Plains growers as winter wheat matures ahead of the summer harvest. Without sufficient moisture, wheat shoots struggle to fill and produce grain. Some farmers will allow cattle to graze fields rather than attempt harvest.
“We have modern precedent for these rough conditions heading into spring, but this ranks with some of the worst we have seen,” said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist for the US Department of Agriculture.
Periodic rains have rolled through parts of the Plains this spring, but the region remains unusually dry after a La Niña winter marked by low snow and record warmth that stripped moisture from the soil.
The impact is evident. Just 30% of the US winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent in USDA data, the lowest rating since 2023. Roughly half the crop in Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas—the region’s largest producers—is categorized as poor to very poor, indicating high risk of yield losses.
The drought coincides with higher input costs. Fertilizer prices have soared following Middle East tensions, prompting some farmers to cut applications. US Representative Frank Lucas, a Republican from Oklahoma, said he chose not to purchase nitrogen fertilizer for his wheat fields.
“I did not have enough moisture—it would not have done any good,” Lucas said. “Number two, I am not even sure what the cost would be.”
Farmers faced economic pressure even before the drought threatened yields. Ample grain supplies elsewhere in the world could limit any price gains. Moisture is desperately needed, Rippey said, adding that rainfall in coming weeks will likely determine whether the winter wheat crop will be made or broken for 2026.
The drought will offer little relief to record beef costs if it stalls rebuilding of the US cattle herd, which has already shrunk to a 75-year low.
Relief may not arrive soon. Although the drying La Niña pattern has ended, heavy rains may not return to the central US until its warming counterpart, El Niño, develops later this summer. By then, the winter wheat harvest and planting window could be closing.
Outlook from the US Climate Prediction Center calls for expansion of drought in eastern Colorado and western Kansas through July, with below-average rainfall in some areas and unseasonably warm temperatures.
That warmth induces more atmospheric demand for moisture, said Eric Hunt, an agricultural meteorologist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Evapotranspiration is higher, meaning more water loss from the ground.
Dry conditions have contributed to destructive wildfires across the southern Plains, burning roughly 1 million acres of hayfields and pasture by the end of March. The losses further dim prospects for rebuilding the cattle herd.
Early in the year, the number of heifers—young female cows that have not yet given birth—auctioned into the meat supply chain began to fall, said Altin Kalo, head economist at Steiner Consulting. That data can signal future breeding plans, but as drought conditions deepened, auction volumes climbed back toward levels seen over the past two years.
“Drought just sets everything back,” said Ben Smith, a field operations manager with the nonprofit Farm Rescue. “That is when producers have to make tough decisions on liquidating some of their herd if they cannot afford to buy feed or cannot find alternative feed.”
Farm Rescue has delivered donated hay to replace supplies lost to fires in Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. Nebraska Cattlemen and Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association have opened mutual aid funds to support affected ranchers.
“Rebuilding, whether it is corrals or fences, takes time and money,” said Nebraska Cattlemen President Craig Uden, noting thousands of miles of pasture fencing were destroyed. Replacement costs usually exceed $10,000 per mile, cutting into rancher incomes even if they do not show up in consumer prices.