SpaceX confidentially filed for an initial public offering with the SEC, targeting a $2 trillion valuation. The Musk-led company’s market debut could trigger a broader IPO revival after years of muted public listings.
IPO Market Drought Since 2021
2021 saw a record 1,035 companies go public, fueled by near-zero interest rates that peaked at 0.08% by year-end. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle — 11 increases from 2022 through 2023 — dried up the market. IPOs fell 83% in 2022 to just 181, with only 154 companies listing in 2023.
The landscape is shifting. Through Q1 2026, 104 companies went public, putting this year on pace for the most IPOs since 2021’s record. Prediction markets like Kalshi show rising expectations for high-profile public debuts.
SpaceX Could Open the Floodgates
SpaceX seeks to raise $50 billion to $75 billion in its offering. Success could green-light other private AI giants eyeing public markets, including Anthropic and OpenAI, both rumored to be preparing IPOs this year.
“Since the big pullback in 2022 and ’23, I think a successful IPO for SpaceX could definitely open the door,” said Jennifer Horton, executive vice president at CapWealth.
SpaceX is reportedly reserving up to 30% of shares for retail investors. Strong retail appetite could influence other companies considering public listings. “For the retail side, I think it will give a nice insight into investor appetite,” Horton added. “Is it driven by how much they believe in Musk or by the financials of the actual company?”
IPO Momentum Extends Beyond AI
The rebound already spans multiple sectors. Amazon-backed X-energy, a next-generation nuclear reactor developer, debuted on Nasdaq April 24 and gained 27% in its first two trading days.
Kalshi assigns Jersey Mike’s a 92% probability of going public this year. Crypto exchange Kraken sits at 62%. Defense technology firm Hawkeye 360 could list as early as May, with beverage maker Liquid Death also targeting 2026.
“Anthropic and OpenAI are the ones everyone’s focused on,” Horton said. “These mega-cap tech IPOs are splashy. But I think it could trickle down, pushing momentum into other areas.” She cited potential Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac listings following years of government conservatorship, which could boost financial stocks that have underperformed most S&P 500 sectors this year.
Investor Caution Advised
Despite the optimism, IPO investing carries risks. Thomas Shipp of LPL Financial noted in an April 23 analysis: “Historically, stock performance in the first year post-IPO has been a mixed bag, with a large minority delivering excess returns while a slight majority deliver negative returns.”
Retail investors rarely access offer prices, with investment banks allocating most shares to large institutional investors. Public listings also create liquidity events for existing shareholders, adding selling pressure post-IPO.
“We suggest investors proceed with any IPO investment with caution and expect to experience a great deal of volatility,” Shipp wrote.
Horton warned that hurdles from the 2021 slowdown could resurface: “If interest rates stay higher for longer, that could compress valuations. If there’s less money on the table, that might make companies delay.” Inflation rose from 2.4% in March 2025 to 3.3% in March 2026, with the Iran conflict pushing prices higher across gasoline, plastics, airfare, and food. Further rate hikes could dissuade companies from following SpaceX’s path.